People living in poverty are disproportionately at risk of experiencing humanitarian crisis. Those living in extreme poverty (on less than $1.90 a day), with reduced capacity to manage and respond to shocks, are increasingly concentrated in countries facing intersecting vulnerabilities, living in fragile states and at high risk from the impacts of Covid-19.^[1]

In 2020, 66% of people living in extreme poverty also lived in fragile countries. Nearly all (95%) of people living in extreme poverty in fragile states were in countries at high risk from the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic. The economic shocks of the pandemic have exacerbated rising food insecurity, with people living in poverty disproportionately affected. Over 80% of people living in areas experiencing severe food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) are estimated to live below the international poverty line of $3.20 a day.

In 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic both compounded existing need and fuelled new crises in countries not previously in need of humanitarian assistance, with increases in both the total number of people requiring humanitarian assistance and the number of countries experiencing humanitarian crisis. An estimated 243.8 million people living in 75 countries were assessed to be in need of humanitarian assistance. In 2020, 14 countries had UN-coordinated appeals solely to address needs related to Covid-19.

The impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic exacerbated need in many existing crises. The number of countries experiencing protracted crisis grew from 31 in 2019 to 34 in 2020.^[2] Of these 34 countries, 25 were assessed to be at high or very high risk from the impacts of Covid-19. Despite this high level of risk, countries experiencing protracted crisis have some of the lowest rates of Covid-19 vaccination coverage in the world. In May 2021, populations living in countries experiencing protracted crisis have an average single-dose vaccination rate of just 2.4%. In other developing countries covered by the COVAX scheme, this rate is 12.5%.

The numbers of displaced people in the world grew for the ninth consecutive year. In 2020, the total number of displaced people increased to 82.1 million (a 3.4% rise). More than half (52%) of displaced people lived in countries at very high or high risk from the impacts of Covid-19. Exposure to the risks of the Covid-19 pandemic is particularly stark for people displaced in sub-Saharan Africa, where 99% of the displaced people were living in countries assessed to be at high or very high risk of the impacts of Covid-19.

People living in extreme poverty are often the most vulnerable to shocks. By definition, those living in extreme poverty have very low socioeconomic resilience but they also often have limited access to the services and infrastructure that can help when shocks occur. When shocks overwhelm communities and crisis develops, the heightened vulnerability of people living in poverty makes recovery from crisis situations harder to achieve, with increasing numbers of countries experiencing protracted crises.^[3]

The Covid-19 pandemic has exposed the challenges posed by systemic shocks to the current systems and structures of humanitarian and wider development assistance.^[4] The complex immediate and long-term impacts of the pandemic, beyond the immediate health crisis, have highlighted the importance of a coordinated response, and one that coherently addresses both immediate needs and the underlying causes and drivers of crisis. This requires better coordination and collaboration between humanitarian, development and peacebuilding assistance – as outlined for instance in the nexus recommendation of the Development Assistance Committee of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD DAC) – and engagement and partnership among actors with differing expertise in crisis contexts (see section entitled, ‘Global development funding and the role of multilateral development banks’, Chapter 2; and section entitled, ‘Multilateral development bank financing to countries experiencing crisis’, Chapter 3).

People living in extreme poverty, with reduced capacity to manage and respond to shocks, are increasingly concentrated in countries facing intersecting vulnerabilities. They often live in fragile countries, at high risk from the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic and already experiencing protracted crisis.

• Many people living in extreme poverty are already experiencing humanitarian crisis. In 2020, of the 52 countries identified as consistently fragile, 36 had UN-coordinated humanitarian appeals and 28 were experiencing protracted crisis.
• People living in extreme poverty (on less than $1.90 a day) are increasingly concentrated in fragile countries. In 2010, 40% of the world’s poorest people lived in fragile countries. By 2020, this share had risen to 66%.
• This increased concentration has been driven by unequal progress in poverty reduction, which has disproportionately occurred in countries that are not fragile. The total number of people living in extreme poverty has fallen from 1.1 billion in 2010 to 740 million in 2020. However, the number of people experiencing extreme poverty in fragile states grew by 8%, while in non-fragile states it fell by 63%.
• Those experiencing extreme poverty are more susceptible to intersecting risks: 95% of people (466 million of 489 million) experiencing extreme poverty and living in fragile countries are in countries identified as being at either ‘high’ or ‘very high’ risk from the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic.

High and rising rates of food insecurity in recent years have been exacerbated by the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic,^[5] with the risk that food insecurity will become an even more significant driver of humanitarian need.^[6]

• In 30 countries with subnational regions classified by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) system^[7] as being in Phase 3 or above (facing crisis, emergency or catastrophe/famine), almost half of these countries (14) were already experiencing protracted crisis in 2020.

IPC analysis includes 425 million people, of which 142 million live in areas with an IPC classification of ‘Crisis’ or higher (Phase 3 or above). People living in poverty, who often have reduced capacity to cope with shocks, are disproportionately represented in areas of severe food insecurity.

• Of the 142 million people living in subnational regions identified as experiencing severe food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above), over three fifths (62%, or 87.5 million people) are estimated to be living below the extreme poverty line. This compares to 47% in areas which are Phase 1 or 2, and just 7% of the rest of the world with no observed acute food insecurity.
• Over 80% of people living in areas experiencing severe food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) are estimated to live below the international poverty line of $3.20 a day: 10 percentage points higher than for those living in Phase 1 and 2 areas. By contrast, just 22% of the rest of the world’s population lives below the $3.20 a day poverty line.
• Subnational regions experiencing severe food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) have consistently and significantly higher poverty rates than those at lower phases within the same country.

In 2020, the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic compounded existing crises for many people. Protracted, complex crises persisted in Yemen, Syria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and South Sudan. In some contexts, like Iran, the Covid-19 pandemic was the primary driver of humanitarian need. In 2020, the number of people needing humanitarian assistance and the number of countries experiencing humanitarian crisis grew.

• In 2020, an estimated 243.8 million people living in 75 countries were assessed to be in need of humanitarian assistance. This compares to 224.9 million people living in 65 countries in 2019.
• The increased level of humanitarian need driven by the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 was evident in the number of countries covered by UN-coordinated appeals, which increased from 36 in 2019 to 55 in 2020 (see Figure 2.2, Chapter 2). Nearly all country appeals had needs associated with Covid-19, with 14 requiring assistance solely to address the impacts of the pandemic.

Because the Covid-19 pandemic has compounded existing crises in many countries, recovery becomes even more difficult.

• In 2020, the number of countries experiencing protracted crisis grew to 34, from 31 in 2019.
• Of these 34 countries, 25 were assessed to be at high or very high risk from the impacts of Covid-19.

In many countries, people experienced a number of intersecting crisis risks and vulnerabilities (see Figure 1.1), often resulting in complex crises with different forms of crisis overlaying one another. The Covid-19 pandemic contributed to the challenges posed by conflict, displacement and other disasters associated with natural hazards.

• Among the 40 countries with high levels of humanitarian need (identified as having more than 1 million people in need), two thirds (27 of 40) were assessed to be at ‘high’ or ‘very high’ risk of the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic.
• In many of these countries where the risks from the impacts of the pandemic were high or very high, the Covid-19 pandemic was overlaying an already complex crisis context. Three quarters (20 of 27) of countries experienced more than one form of crisis – conflict, displacement or disasters associated with natural hazards – with more than half experiencing all three (15 of 27).
• In total, among the 40 countries with high levels of humanitarian need, 33 experienced disasters associated with natural hazards, 27 experienced conflict, and 27 experienced displacement.

While the numbers of people and countries affected by crisis grew in 2020, high numbers of people in need continued to be concentrated in a small number of countries.

• More than half of those in need in 2021 lived in just nine countries.
• Six countries each had more than ten million people in need living in their territory: Yemen (24.2 million), DRC (23.4 million), Venezuela (14.3 million), Afghanistan (14 million), Syria (11.7 million) and DPR Korea (10.9 million).
• The numbers in need were largely unchanged from 2019 in most of these countries. However, significantly more people were identified as requiring humanitarian assistance in 2020 in DRC (7.5 million more) and Afghanistan (2.7 million more).
• Among these nine countries, seven are experiencing protracted crisis, the exceptions being Colombia and Venezuela where the growth in the numbers of people in need has been driven by the millions displaced from Venezuela since 2018.

The number of people in need of humanitarian assistance relative to the size of a domestic population of a country – noting the limitations of collecting population data in some crisis contexts – can give an indication of the extent of crisis and need.

• In 2020, seven countries had a total number of people in need equivalent to more than half of their domestic populations: Yemen (81%), Eritrea (73%), Syria (67%), South Sudan (64%), CAR (58%), Lebanon (55%) and Venezuela (50%).

The numbers of displaced people worldwide grew for the ninth consecutive year in 2020, with many in enduring situations of displacement requiring long-term humanitarian assistance, as options for safe return home remain closed. However, the numbers displaced in 2020 may be even higher as the Covid-19 pandemic impeded data collection while fear of infection may have deterred some people from seeking emergency protection and shelter.^[22]

• In 2020, the total number of displaced people increased to 82.1 million, by 3.4% (2.7 million) from a total of 79.5 million in 2019.
• Three fifths (58%, or 48.0 million people) of this total were people forcibly displaced internally; 32% were refugees (26.3 million); 5.1% were asylum seekers (4.2 million); and 4.4% (3.6 million) were Venezuelans displaced abroad.
• Continuing the trend of recent years, the majority of displaced people were internally displaced, with around one third being refugees.
• The overall rise in the number of people displaced in 2020 was driven by an increase in those internally displaced, rising by 2.4 million (a 5.2% rise) from 2019. The number of refugees, asylum seekers and Venezuelans displaced abroad remained largely unchanged from the previous year.

Displaced people are often among the most vulnerable to shocks. They are consequently particularly at risk from the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, in living conditions often lacking access to water, sanitation and health facilities – which increases risks of infection and of dying if the virus is contracted.^[23] At the same time, the transient nature of displacement enables the spread of the virus as populations move.^[24] Quantifying these increased risks is challenging, as data on Covid-19 cases will often not include displaced people.^[25] The majority of displaced people live in countries at high risk from the impacts of Covid-19.

• In 2020, more than half (52% or 42.9 million) of displaced people lived in countries assessed to be at high or very high risk of the impacts of Covid-19.
• A further 39% (32.2 million) were living in countries assessed to be at medium risk.
• Exposure to the risks of the Covid-19 pandemic is particularly stark for people displaced in sub-Saharan Africa, where 99% of the displaced population lives in countries assessed to be at high or very high risk from the impacts of Covid-19.

As in previous years, a small number of countries hosted the majority of all displaced people. Most countries with the largest populations of displaced people have experienced rises in the number they hosted in 2020.

• In 2020, 10 countries hosted over half (54%, 44.4 million) of all displaced people, a similar proportion to 2019 (55%).
• Among these ten countries, only two saw a notable decrease in the number of displaced people: in Colombia by 654,482 people (8.9% of the total displaced population in the country), and in DRC by 242,561 people (4.0%).^[26]
• The largest increases in displaced populations were seen in Ethiopia, as conflict in the Tigray region contributed to an increase of 683,799 (31%) from 2019, and in Afghanistan where the displaced population grew by almost a fifth (18.1%), a rise of 533,988 people, as a result of conflict and violence.

Sub-Sharan Africa again had the largest number of displaced people, as the trend seen in recent years of an increasing concentration of the global displaced population in this region continued in 2020.

• The number of displaced people in sub-Saharan Africa continued to grow in absolute terms, rising by 2.8 million from 2019 to 28.9 million (a 11% increase) in 2020, and as a proportion of all those displaced globally, up from 33% in 2019 to 35% in 2020.
• Driving this growth in sub-Saharan Africa was the increase of 2.6 million in the number of internally displaced people.
• The displaced populations also grew notably as a proportion in South Asia, rising 9.1% to 7.2 million, and in North America, increasing 6.5% to 1.5 million.
• Slight falls were seen in the size of the displaced populations in Latin America and the Caribbean, down 5.1% to 10.7 million, and in the Middle East and North of Sahara region, decreasing 2.8% to 21.3 million.

The protracted nature of many of the largest displacement crises is evident in the largely unchanging picture seen when analysing the countries of origin of refugees and asylum seekers over the past five years. Venezuela is, however, the one notable exception.

• In 2020, Syria was the country from which the largest number of refugees and asylum seekers originated (6.7 million), followed by Afghanistan (3.0 million), with little change year-on-year in the numbers of refugees and asylum seekers from these countries over the period 2015 to 2020.
• Since 2015, Venezuela has seen by far the fastest growth in numbers of refugees and asylum seekers produced, with numbers growing by a yearly average of 126%. However, in 2020 the pace of growth slowed to 6.6% (an increase of 59,004 from 2019). In 2020, a total of 946,812 refugees and asylum seekers were registered as originated from Venezuela.
• Also since 2015, the numbers of refuges and asylum seekers have grown significantly from South Sudan, almost tripling to 2.3 million (up 192%), and from Myanmar, almost doubling to 1.0 million (up 99%).